Why Chance-Based Mechanics Keep Us Hooked

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Why Chance-Based

Mechanics Keep

Us Hooked

Monopoly Go examples

Deconstructions

by Sensor Tower

Deconstructions,
Sensor Tower’s state-of-the-art platform for

analyzing Live Ops, enables you to dive into a rich repository of

events, updates, and monetization oﬀers across hundreds of top

games. Whether you’re designing a new oﬀering, reengaging

existing players, or optimizing your monetization tactics, use

Deconstructions to secure your competitive edge in the

mobile gaming world.

This report gives you a preview of the rich insights available

in-platform — use these evidence-based recommendations to

move with confidence, and revamp your strategy ahead of the

holiday season.

When most people hear
thrill
, they immediately
think

of casinos – slots, gambling, risky bets.

But that’s just the loudest and most obvious

example.

In reality,
thrill is much broader than gambling
.

Thrill is about waiting.

It’s about risk, belief and probabilities.

Thrill (excitement) is not about winning.

Its core is a tense mix of 3 feelings:

●
Anticipation
–
“Something good might happen.”

●
Risk
–
“But maybe it won’t.”

●
Hope
–
“I’ll try anyway.”

Thrill lives
between certainty and hopelessness
.

The Nature of Thrill

and Excitement

Have you ever had the feeling that waiting for

something – a vacation, a trip, a holiday – was

just as exciting and emotionally intense as the

event itself?

That feeling is
anticipation
. It’s a powerful

emotional state

From a psychological perspective, dopamine is

released not when we receive the reward, but

when we
expect
it.

The real thrill there doesn’t come from the final

result – it comes from the
moment before
it.

Anticipation

What’s funny is that
regardless of the outcome
, it makes you want to keep going:

●
If you
WIN
, it works as positive reinforcement:

I won once, so I might win again.

●
If you
LOSE
, thrill shows up diﬀerently:

It didn’t work out this time – but
it will next time
.

And besides, I need to win it back.

A loss often turns into:

“It didn’t happen this time – but it will next time.

I can’t stop now.”

Your brain starts to believe that because the reward

didn’t drop
now
, the chance of it dropping
next
time

is higher – even though it isn’t.

This belief becomes even stronger with a
near miss
.

When you’re just one step away – your brain doesn’t

read it as failure, but as progress.

Almost winning feels closer to winning

than to losing!

Near Miss,

FUUUU-factor

FUUUU – I almost had it!

●
when the combination needs
one more move
,

●
the jackpot
stops

right before
the winning symbol,

●
the collection shows

9/10
,

●
or you lose when the boss has
1% health left

A win is more than a reward.

It’s purest
positive reinforcement
.

I took an action → I believed → I waited → I won.

it teaches your brain an important lesson:

It worked once. That means it can work again.

Games amplify this moment on purpose: celebratory

sounds, slow-motion reveals, exaggerated rewards

screens.

But there’s a special kind of win that feels even

stronger.

The
‘It finally hit’
moment.

●
When the chance was low.

●
When you were already making peace with a loss.

●
And then – luck suddenly lands on your side.

It Finally Hit

That moment multiplies the emotional eﬀect.

●
When the
last card
completes a
‘Full House’
in poker.

●
When the
last move
in a match-3 level triggers a perfect booster chain.

●
When a long-awaited
legendary
finally drops from a pack

It needs the
possibility
of a big one.

People don’t think in expected value or real odds.

They believe in the
best possible outcome
.

A rare big win reshapes perception.

Even if small wins are far more likely.

Casinos know this well.

When someone hits a jackpot – a bell rings.

Everyone hears it. Everyone sees it.

The message is simple:

Big wins are real. It can happen.

This feeling fuels stories:

What if I’m next?

The Chance to Win Big

The Skinner Box is about rewards that don’t show up

every time.

●
If you get a reward always → it becomes boring.

●
If you never get it → you stop trying.

But when the reward appears
sometimes
–

unpredictably – you want to try again.

You don’t know
when
it will happen.

But you believe it
can
happen

Reward after an unpredictable number of actions.

Not every tap → reward.

Not every 5 taps → reward.

But
maybe
the next one
.

Skinner Box

Monopoly GO!:

One of the Best

Chance-Based Systems

Monopoly GO

MonopolyGO has been in the
TOP-30
for a long time

and continues to hold key positions.

Its
IAP

Revenue
remains stable at around
$100-125M

per month

While monthly
downloads
sit at roughly
1.5M

Downloads

Revenue

At first glance, Monopoly GO! looks simple

and familiar.

Roll the dice → Move forward → Something happens.

But the game isn’t just about Monopoly IP.

It’s about
what might happen next
.

It keeps tension alive.

Its core loop is built on
probability, delayed

outcomes, and emotional tension
– the same

forces that power slot machines, but wrapped in

social systems, progression, and daily goals.

Monopoly GO! doesn’t ask players to master

mechanics.

It asks them to
wait, hope, and believe
.

Monopoly GO:

Game of Chances

Researcher Portrait

How This Analysis Was Done

To break Monopoly GO! down properly, the analysis was based on

hands-on gameplay rather than theory alone.

●
20 Locations
completed

●
14,550 Dice
rolled

●
3 In-App purchases
made

This level of exposure provides a solid view of the core loop,

LiveOps structure, and monetization beats – without drifting into

late-game edge cases.

Now, let’s look at how the game actually works.

Core Gameplay: The Ups and Downs

Looking at ~500 moves, the dice balance shows a clear ‘
saw-tooth’ pattern
, with regular spikes and drops typical of diﬀiculty tuning. Notably,

these spikes don’t come only from Purchases – many are driven by Events and a well-balanced
income-outcome flow
design, creating constant

tension and relief.

Phase 1:

Before the 1st Purchase

The player starts with
30 dice
, but the balance

quickly stabilizes in a
50-100 range

Soon after, dice are almost fully depleted – until

a
location upgrades, unlocks daily tasks and

events
, creating a sharp spike up to
~200
dice.

The
pattern then repeats
:

near depletion → progression unlock →

temporary relief → back to pressure.

This
sets the rhythm
early – teaching the player

that running low is expected, and recovery

comes through continued play and progression.

After making a purchase, the peaks and

drops continued:

–
the player
dropped

to nearly 300 dice,
rose

again to 400+

–
then
dropped
close to 100 – and eventually

recovered
to almost the same level as
right

after the purchase – 500+ dice

Even after a purchase, the tension remains.

‘Lucky’ moments and dice inflows
are now

driven primarily by events rather than

spending.

Notably, these event-driven inflows grow over

time – especially when compared to the

pre-purchase phase

Phase 2:

Before the 2nd Purchase

From the Start of the 2nd Purchase

Here, it’s also clear how the game almost
drains

the player down to zero – and then suddenly

injects ‘luck’,
pushing the balance even
higher

than it was
right after the purchase.

These sharp surges are what
amplify thrill and

excitement
, while the drops
prevent the

experience from becoming ‘boring’
: flat or

predictable – making every peak feel more

rewarding.

Phase 3:

Before the 3rd Purchase

The Full Progression

The full progression shows a constant cycle of pressure and release.

Near-depletion
creates tension, while sudden
‘lucky’ spikes
reignite thrill and reinforce the urge to keep playing.

Full Progression

Core Gameplay

Mechanic

Deconstruction

Let’s break down the
board tiles
themselves – what

types exist and how they convey thrill and

excitement:

●
Property: Money

tiles
– basic income used for

Meta progression

●
Event tiles
– feed LiveOps progress

●
Bonus tiles
– visually highlighted, create

excitement spikes

●
Negative tiles (Jail, Taxes)
– apply pressure

and resource drain

●
Chance Card tiles
– introduce uncertainty and

surprise outcomes

●
Community Chest
– social layer, linking

individual turns to shared systems

●
Other (GO, Free Parking)
– relief and reset

points

Board Tiles

Overview

Tile Landing Frequency

The number of tiles and the overall board

structure remain
the same
across locations.

When looking at tile distribution:

–
around
50% of landings
are standard

Property: Money tiles
with basic payouts

–
while the other
50%
involve tiles with

special mini-games, events, or modifiers

that add variation and excitement.

When players upgrade buildings, they unlock

Color Sets
– houses placed on property tiles.

These upgrades directly aﬀect rewards in 2 ways:

1.
Rent from other players –
Other players are

distributed across multiple tiles. When they

land on a property tile you own, they pay

Rent
– and the more upgraded the property

is, the higher the rent they pay.

2.
Color Wheel bonus
– Once all property tiles

of the same color have a hotel, an additional

Color Wheel bonus becomes available

These 2 mechanics creating another

anticipation-driven reward
opportunity.

Property Tiles

Wheel of Fortune: Visualization

Wheel of Fortune
is one of the most powerful and widely used chance-based mechanics – but only when it’s designed correctly.

What’s the first thing players notice when the Wheels appear?

The
2nd Wheel
highlights the 3 largest prizes

And that’s the trick.

You add a few
juicy rewards
to spark excitement – and then you

visually emphasize them
so they dominate attention.

In reality, the
average payout
here is around
900K
.

But let’s be honest – no one spins a wheel thinking about averages.

Emotionally, players see a
chance at the jackpot – 4M+
.

And
that
is what makes the spin exciting.

For the
1st Wheel
, it’s the
Safe
at the center that immediately

catches your eye. It’s instantly perceived as the
most valuable

and
most desirable
reward.

Let’s talk about What
high volatility
actually means and why it works?

Wheel of Fortune: Balance

They feel completely diﬀerent

●
The blue one?

It’s predictable – and safe.

But also… kind of boring

●
The red one?

It’s alive – you Win big, you

Lose hard – you feel

something

Here are 2 reward systems:
Both distributions have the same expected value (mean) = 30.

–
When variance and volatility are
low
, outcomes stay close to the average.

–
When variance is
high
, results are spread across a much wider range.

Shut Down + Shield

Shutdown
is one of the bonus mechanics

Beyond its
social aspect
, Shutdown adds a

strong

layer of Probability and Anticipation:

–
the size of the
reward depends on whether

the opponent has an active shield or not

–
while the animation plays – the crane

swinging toward the building – the player is

already mentally
placing a bet
on the

outcome.

–
According to the observed data,
60% of

Shutdowns resulted in the maximum

reward
, while the remaining
40% were

blocked by shields
.

There’s also a 2nd layer to this system:
Acquiring

Shields
.

–
Shield icons are scattered across the board,

placed on top of other tiles. Landing on
them

grants shields, which means that when a

player runs out of shields, they actively
hope

their next roll lands on one

Heist is a short, high-intensity mini-game built

entirely around
anticipation and chance
.

Players open hidden tiles, trying to
match 3

identical symbols to determine the payout – Small

Heist or Large Heist. Every tap is a
Micro-Bet

The mechanic amplifies excitement through:

●
Anticipation on
Every
reveal

●
Near-miss moments
(2 matches out of 3)

●
Illusion of control
– you choose the tiles

●
Escalating tension
as matches build up

●
Big-number framing
– the reward is visible

upfront

Notably, across ALL plays, the
lowest-tier prize

appeared in only 13% of cases
. This could be a

coincidence, but more likely it’s a deliberate tuning

choice – reducing the frequency of ‘bad luck’

outcomes to avoid making players feel unlucky

Bank Heist:

Why It Works

1
–
3
–
2
–
2
–
1
–
3
–
2

●
A more balanced reveal pattern: no strong bias early on, but

steady intrigue until the end.

●
With 2 symbols of each type, anticipation stays alive because
any

outcome remains possible
.

Bank Heist:

Why Flow Matters

1
–
1
–
3
–
2
–
2
–
3
–
2

●
The player starts by revealing
2 TOP-tier symbols
, immediately

creating strong tension: every next reveal feels like it
could

complete the best prize.

●
Each click reinforces the belief that the next one will hit – but the

final outcome lands on a
mid-tier reward
.

3
–
3
–
2
–
1–1
–
2
–
1

●
Here, the 1st reveals point to a
LOW-tier result
, gradually killing

confidence.

●
Even after a few more picks, hope remains low.

●
Then, at the very end, the
TOP prize hits
– a classic

‘it finally landed’
moment, when hope was almost gone but luck

turns everything around.

3
–
3
–
1–
2
–
2
–
1
–
3

●
After the previous experience, even a bad early start doesn’t fully

break belief.

●
The player now
remembers
that a top prize is still possible
–

reinforcing
long-term trust
in the system.

Example A

Example B

Example C

Example D

Bank Heist:

Extra Excitement

The game introduces a limited-time bonus event
where,

for the
limited time
, players have a chance to trigger

Mega Heist
– further intensifying excitement.

Thrill is amplified through
stacked probability layers
:

1.
Chance to land on a specific board tile
(only two

exist)

2.
Chance to trigger a Mega Heist
instead of a

regular one

3.
Chance to Win Big
inside the Mega Heist itself

Each layer builds anticipation
before the previous one

fully resolves.

Visually, the eﬀect is reinforced even more:

●
Small rewards are
replaced
by noticeably larger

ones, supported by bold animations, brighter

colors, and a distinct background.

Together, these elements transform a familiar
mechanic

into a short-lived,
high-stakes moment

There are several types of
Chance cards
in the

game – but the player
never knows in advance

which one they’ll get.

When landing on a Chance tile, the player draws a

card and only then reveals its eﬀect. This delay

creates immediate
intrigue and anticipation
.

Each draw can result in
1 of 3 reward types
:

●
Cash

●
Dice

●
Or one of the Bonus Games

.. turning every landing into a small suspense

moment driven purely by uncertainty.

Chance Card

55% Chance

17% Chance

29% Chance

Community Chest is primarily a
social feature
, but it

works from 2 sides at once:

1.
Players need to complete
tasks
together with a

friend → in order to earn
keys
.

2.
In the core gameplay loop, landing on a

Community Chest tile
of the corresponding

color fills the shared progress bar for that chest.

Because both conditions are required, the mechanic

naturally
increases the desire to land on

Community Chest tiles
– turning otherwise neutral

board spaces into highly anticipated targets.

Community Chest

Lucky Coin:

Press-Your-Luck

Lucky Coin
is another example of a chance-driven

mechanic – a classic
press-your-luck
design.

On each step, the player flips a coin:

●
Each flip either grows the reward – and the

tension
– or ends the run.

●
However, the strength of this mini-game lies

in real
risk
: without the possibility of loss,

thrill disappears.

Another point – balance matters:

●
In practice, around
35% of runs ended on

the very 1st step
, resulting in a

reward of
‘0’.

●
From a purely mathematical standpoint, this

makes sense – the chance to fail on the first

flip is
50%
. But emotionally, this is one of

those cases where slightly

unfair

probabilities → could create a better player

experience
.

Walking away with nothing – especially when the

run visually promises five steps – feels frustrating

rather than thrilling.

Jail:

Punishment or Hidden Reward?

The board includes not only positive, but also
“negative” tiles

– although they aren’t truly negative once you look closer.

When landing in Jail, the player gets a chance to escape by

rolling a
double on 2 dice within 3 attempts
. Each roll

becomes a mini moment of anticipation – another
chance to

get away
.

If the player does roll a double, they don’t just escape –

they’re also
rewarded with extra dice
.

What’s especially interesting is the actual outcome distribution:

●
27%
of the time, escape happened on the
1st roll

●
53%
of the time, on the
2nd or 3rd roll

●
Only
20%
of the time did the player end up paying the fine

Statistically, the truly negative outcome is rare.

Most of the time, Jail turns into a fun escape moment – often

with a reward – reframing what looks like
punishment into

another anticipation-driven experience
.

Taxes
– removes a small, symbolic amount

of money to add light tension without real

punishment

Other Tiles

Free Parking
– neutral, even ‘boring’ tile:

gives nothing, takes nothing, and is the least

exciting space on the board

GO
– the anchor tile: always rewards the

player, even when passed, providing

consistency and relief

Bonus Time

Limited Events

Group 1: Location Boosters

They encourage the player to play as actively as possible to fully leverage the booster’s potential.

To buy more dice in order to play longer – and to spend more in order to play at higher stakes.

Group 2: Focusing Boosters

It highlights the corner tiles

+Even making
Free Parking
feel

relevant

It makes hunting for
Friend-related

tiles
more engaging

Shifts focus from single tiles to

Dice combinations
, adding

another strategic layer

It encourages higher-stakes play,

making players

Spend dice even faster

Group 3: Mini-Games Boosters

This type of booster makes already thrill-driven special tiles and bonus games even more impactful,
Multiplying Anticipation

around landing on them
. There are only a few of these tiles on the board – which makes them feel even
More Valuable
.

LiveOps and Features

Basic Events

Basic events
put a spotlight on
specific board tiles
, since they are the main source of event currency.

What’s important is that diﬀerent events target
diﬀerent tiles
– but always ones that are
rare and highly visible
on the board

●
When dice are

running low

●
The event is
90%

complete

●
and you’re waiting

for
that one tile

with currency

Anticipation peaks.

Complex Mini-Games

Current events are more complex. Their currency often comes from
other
events and features.

So where does the
thrill
come from here? From the
event mechanics themselves
.

●
How will the ball fall

in pachinko?

●
Is this the correct

color order?

●
Which tile is the ship

hiding behind?

●
What shape will

appear next?

Album collections
are one of the strongest probability-driven mechanics in the game. At their core, they are classic
Gacha / Loot Boxes
:

you open a pack never knowing exactly what’s inside – but always believing it could contain
that one rare or missing card
.

Album Collections

This uncertainty is the key.

Each pack is less about the cards

you get – and more about the

hope of getting the one you

need
.

Album Collections: Packs

The game features
5 types of sticker packs
.

As expected, the rarer the pack → the higher the

chance of getting rare cards.

But Monopoly GO! makes this experience even

more exciting.

For example

●
in roughly
78% of cases
,
orange packs
drop

only
Tier 1-2 cards
.

●
however, the remaining
22%
create powerful

emotional spikes – moments when a

higher-tier card appears.

In one case, even a
Tier 5 card
dropped.

Why does this matter?

●
After receiving a rare card once, the player

believes
it’s real

●
Every next pack is opened with the same

thought:

“What if there’s another rare one inside?”

This is how a low-probability outcome turns into a

long-term belief
–

and belief is what keeps anticipation alive through

countless openings.

Want to amplify the eﬀect even further?

Beyond mathematical probability tuning,

Visual presentation matters deeply
.

●
Add
distinct lighting and opening animations

for rare cards – or for the
last missing cards
in a

player’s collection.

●
Slow down the pack-opening moment itself,

stretching those final seconds to heighten

tension and
intrigue
.

These small delays and visual cues dramatically

strengthen anticipation.

Album Collections: Packs

A great reference here is
Hearthstone
.

Even people who’ve never played the game recognize its pack-opening animation –

because it turns uncertainty into a memorable emotional moment.

When done right, visuals don’t just reveal the result – they
sell the possibility

before it appears.

Final Thoughts

Chance-based mechanics work not because players love

randomness, but because they
love anticipation
.

Monopoly GO!
shows that thrill isn’t created by wins alone –

it’s built through tension, near misses, visible possibilities, and

carefully timed relief.

Give players emotions through your chance-based mechanics.

Don’t focus only on the moment of reward – let them enjoy the

waiting
, the
hoping
, and the
journey toward it
just as much.

Interested in our

Solutions?

If you want to learn more about Sensor Tower, please request a demo:

Request a free demo!

Get the latest insights on our blog:
sensortower.com/blog

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