The importance of wishlists in 2025

The importance
of wishlists in 2025
Do wishlists matter – what does the data say?
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01
Table of Contents
02
03
How many wishlists do games typically get? 4 – 6
Importance of wishlists 7 – 10
How games accumulate wishlists 11 – 14
Learn more about VGI 15 – 20 04

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How many wishlists do
games typically get?
01

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Using wishlist data as a metric is essential for predicting game success whilst
playing a key role in an effective launch strategy
Overview:
This report explores Steam wishlists and their importance to games launch performance.
Summary:
● Only a small percentage of games surpass 100k wishlists at launch.
● Not all genres are able to garner huge wishlists with action and adventure titles outperforming all other genres.
● Wishlist momentum is a strong indicator of success with games with its snowball effect almost a guarantee of a
commercial success, but ONLY for games that achieve at least 100k wishlists pre launch.
● There is a direct correlation with the early launch of a Steam page and wishlist growth.
Methodology:
The methodology relies on VGI’s estimations and looks at games launched from the March 2024.
Overview of the Report

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Wishlist at Launch Leaders (Last 12M)
Steam wishlist distribution is top – heavy, with a few breakout hits
surpassing 1M wishlists while the majority of games launch with under 1 0K
Notes: Games launched after 03/06/2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews
Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Distribution of Steam Game Wishlists at Launch (Last 12 M)
Game Wishlist Overview
Black Myth: Wukong
4.3M Wishlists
Monster Hunter Wilds
2. 9M Wishlists
Hades II
2.8M Wishlists
Manor Lords
2. 8M Wishlists
inZOI
2. 6M Wishlists
22 26
253
>1M 500K -1M 100K -500K
Top Batch Breakdown
29%
37%
23%
5%
6%
100K+
50K -100K
10K -50K
1K -10K
<1K

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Key Insights:
The “Core” Genres: Leaders in Pre -Release Buzz
● Core genres like Action and Adventure , often
published by AAA/AA publishers with big budgets
and strong brand equity generate robust pre –
release buzz.
The Underdogs: Casual and MMO Titles
● Their success often hinges on strong post -launch
tactics — performance marketing, word -of -mouth ,
live updates, and community engagement —
rather than just pre -release hype.
● MMO games show a significant gap between the
median and 75th percentile, suggesting that
player interest is focused on a few major
releases.
RPGs, strategy, and action lead wishlists , while casual and MMOs lag,
highlighting genre – driven differences in pre – release hype
Notes: Top 50 games with wishlist @ launch, launched after 07/28/2024,
with over 20 Steam Reviews
Source: VGI data, Team Analysis
Median & 75th Percentile # of Wishlist at Launch, by Genres (Last 12M)
Game Wishlist by Main Genres
Top 10% Top 25% Median
10k
20k
30k
0k
40k
50k
60k
70k
80k
190k
100k
180k
90k 89k
4k
14k
41k
4k 6k
21k
64k
3k
16k
55k
3k
23k
78k
183k
2k 5k
11k
21k 21k
73k
5k
25k
100k
5k
21k
30k
RPG Strategy Action Adventure Sports Simulation Racing MMO Casual

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Importance of
wishlists
02

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Wishlist momentum acts as a crystal ball for launch success — games with few
wishlist s rarely break out, while large ones almost guarantee a strong start
Key Insights
● Larger wishlists at launch correlate
strongly with higher first -month sales,
emphasizing the need for robust pre –
release marketing.
● While small wishlists don’t doom a title,
they significantly lower the odds of a
breakout, underlining the importance
of building an audience early.
● Hitting higher wishlist tiers — especially
above 100k — dramatically boosts the
likelihood of a blockbuster start,
offering a clear goal for studios aiming
for strong initial sales.
Notes: Top 50 games with wishlist @ launch, launched after H2
2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews
Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Probability Distribution of Month 1 Sales by Wishlist Count at Launch
(Sample size 5744, games released after 03/06/2024)
Wishlist at Launch x Month 1 Sales Distributions
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
# of Month 1 Sales
0-10K Wishlists 10K-100K 100K-1M Wishlists 1M+ Wishlists
Games with 1M+ wishlists at
launch are very likely to sell
over 10M units in their lifetime

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Overall, the correlation between launch success and pre – launch wishlists is
relatively strong, at 70%…
Notes :Games launched after H2 2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Probability Distribution of M1 Sales by Wishlist Count at Launch (Sample size 5744, games released after 03/06/2024)
Wishlist at Launch VS Month 1 Unit Sales
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Wishlists at launch
1st
Month Units Sold
Correlation: 70%
RSQ: 49 %
Only 141 out of 1500 games (9%) sell more copies than its wishlist counts
during first month after launch , further established count of wishlist as a
strong predictor of sales in early stages.

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Notes: Games launched after H2 2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Wishlist at Launch VS Month 1 Unit Sales
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
10,000 100,000
Wishlists at launch
1st
Month Units Sold
Correlation: 17%
RSQ: 3 %
100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000
Wishlists at Launch
Correlation: 71%
RSQ: 51 %
100K Wishlists
Probability Distribution of M1 Sales by Wishlist Count at Launch (Sample size 5744, games released after 03/06/2024)
… however, games with 100K+ wishlists show stronger predictive power for
launch sales, while at lower volume of wishlists, correlations are not as evident

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How games
accumulate wishlists
03

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Top – performing games typically create Steam pages around a year before
launch, optimizing visibility and wishlist growth
Key Insights
● Many top -performing games launch
their Steam pages about 0.5 -1 years
before release, striking a balance
between early visibility and sustained
interest.
● Gradual reveals — screenshots, trailers,
and dev updates — maintain
momentum and convert casual
observers into committed wishlisters .
Notes: Top 50 games with wishlist @ launch, launched after H2
2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews
Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Distribution of Steam Page Creation Time
1M Pre -Launch 3M Pre -Launch 6M Pre -Launch 1Yr Pre -Launch 2Yr Pre -Launch 3Yr Pre -Launch 3Yr+ Pre -Launch
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%

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Top – performing games typically create Steam pages around a year before
launch, optimizing visibility and wishlist growth
Key Insights
● Most successful games accumulate the
majority of their wishlists well before
the four -month pre -launch mark,
highlighting the value of an early Steam
page and sustained visibility.
● Some high -profile titles, like Indiana
Jones and the Great Circle, Marvel’s
Spider -Man 2, and Final Fantasy XVI,
have relied on short -notice reveals.
● They might have generated even
stronger momentum by establishing a
Steam presence earlier.
Notes: Top 50 games with wishlist @ launch, launched after H2
2024, with over 20 Steam Reviews
Sources: VGI data, Team Analysis
Growth of Wishlist 17 Weeks Pre -Launch
100%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
-17 -16 -15 -14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0
# of Week sPre -Launch
Wishlists
Indexed to Launch Number (Launch Day = 100%)
83%
71%
85%
72%
85%
73%
85%
75%
87%
77%
90%
79%
92%
80%
94%
80% 82%

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Case Study: KCD 2 saw significant ramp – ups in wishlist with every trailer launch
and had accumulated 72% of its wishlists 3 months pre – launch
Sources : VGI data, Team Analysis
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 – Wishlists Pre -Launch
Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 – Wishlists Pre -Launch (Millions)
Sep
-24
Oct
-24
Nov
-24
Apr
-24
May
-24
Jan
-25
Jun
-24
Feb
-25
Jul
-24
Mar
-25
Aug
-24
0.0m
0.2m
0.4m
0.6m
0.8m
1.0m
1.2m
1.4m
Dec
-24
Ramp -up marketing
pre -launch
+ story trailer
Steam page +
announce
trailer
Official
gameplay
showcase
Saints and
Sinners
trailer

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Learn More with VGI

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This report created using only the data from the Video Game Insights.
Visit the platform to dig into more details!
What VGI Can Offer:
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Analyse Wishlists
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Look at Overlapping Players
Deep Dive Into Genres

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Appendix

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Definitions and methodology
Glossary
Terms Definitions
AA/AAA games Large budget games developed by massive teams and companies. AAA game budgets are typically over $100M to develop
CAGR Compound annual growth rate
CCU Concurrent users –active players in -game
FtP Free to play games
Full Game Revenue Revenue from the direct sale of a game, excluding any DLC and MTX revenues
IAP In -app purchases
Indie games Games developed by independent studios. This covers a large range of studios from 1 person hobby projects to larger studios o f a few hundred
employees, but budgets still fall far short of the AAA game levels
MTX Microtransactions
Unit Sales Estimate Using different estimation methods, including an algorithm based on our internal database of actual sales and the Boxleiter m eth od to get from
Steam review numbers to estimated sales. Detailed overview of the method is highlighted in the section below
Revenue Estimate Estimated units sold multiplied by the price at the time. This is gross revenue, including the Steam cut, but adjusted for lo cal currencies,
returned products and discounts
More information:
Definitions and Methodology : https://vginsights.zendesk.com/hc/ en -us
Email : Support @ sensortower.com

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Legal Disclaimer
Legal Stuff. We’ll Keep It Brief
Video Game Insights (VGI) is in no way affiliated with Steam or Valve.
All data provided in this report is freely available and can be shared without any restrictions.
All data provided in this report is based on estimates and should be considered as such.
VGI uses third -party suppliers and applications, often internet enabled. VG Insights can therefore not guarantee the accuracy of
all data coming from third parties. This might be due to mis -tagging or mis -reporting of data and VG Insights will adjust and fi x
the issues when highlighted to us.
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